Global trade is on track to hit an unprecedented $35trn this year, with East Asia, Africa and South- South corridors driving the gains even as geopolitical fragmentation reshapes supply chains, according to UNCTAD’s year-end global trade update.
Trade is expected to grow 7% in 2025, adding $2.2trn in new of value.
Crucially, the late-year expansion is being powered by higher volumes, not higher prices, marking a shift from the inflation driven trade growth seen earlier in the year.
UNCTAD’s data shows goods rising nearly 2% and services 4% in Q3, with momentum slowing but still positive into Q4.
Trade inflation is set to fall, with prices for traded goods expected to decline in the final quarter.
East Asia remains the standout performer, posting 9% export growth over the past year, underpinned by a 10% surge in intraregional trade.
Traditional trade patterns are being rewritten as China redirects exports from tariff-impacted US markets elsewhere
Alrica also recorded strong momentum. with imports up 10% and exports up 6%.
South-South flows grew around 8%, underscoring how trade between developing economies has become a structural engine of global commerce.
Manufacturing remains the backbone of global trade growth, led by electronics, which expanded 14% on the back of Al- driven demand.
Agriculture also saw a sharp Q3 rebound, while energy and automotive shipments faltered: crude oil flows fell, LNG contracted, and global automotive trade shrank 4% over the year.
Yet the backdrop is far from calm.
UNCTAD warned that friendshoring and nearshoring intensified again in 2025, accelerating the restructuring of trade routes already underway since the pandemic era.
Trade imbalances remain elevated, and supply chains are consolidating around politically aligned partners.
Looking ahead, the agency expects weaker growth in 2026 as slowing global activity, rising debt burdens, higher logistics costs and persistent uncertainty weigh on performance.
For shipping, the numbers confirm what operators have felt all year: global trade hasn’t just recovered – it has rerouted.
East Asia and Africa’s rising share, the resurgence of volumes in emerging markets, and steadily climbing South-South flows are redrawing the commercial map of global shipping as the industry enters 2026.
Splash reported yesterday on China’s trade surplus smashing through the $1trn mark in the first 11 months of 2025 a record that underscores how dramatically global container flows have shifted this year, even as trade with the US slumps nearly 29%.
China-US liftings have been in 2025, weighed down by Trump’s protectionism, near-shoring, inventory corrections, and a wave of trade-diversion strategies among American importers.
Yet the shortfall has been more than offset by booming demand from Latin America, the Middle East, Russia-adjacent markets, and parts of Africa and South Asia.
“Traditional trade patterns are being rewritten as China redirects exports from tariff-impacted US markets toward Europe (+10-15%), Africa (+20-25%), and intra-Asian lanes (+6-8%), while emerging markets-led by India, Philippines, and East Africa-accelerate their rise,” noted a new report from Vizion, an American container tracking platform.
Faced with US tariff barriers, Chinese exporters executed what Vizion described as “a remarkable geographic pivot” in 2025.
Vizion data shows US-bound bookings from China are down 8-12% this year compared to 2024, while Europe-bound bookings are up by 10-15%, Africa-bound bookings are up a remarkable 20-25%, while ASEAN-bound bookings are up 6-8%.
Writing for Splash earlier this year, Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, and author of this year’s bestseller The Fractured Age, suggested that globalisation is not ending, but patterns of global trade are being redrawn.
“Identifying where the fault lines of this fracturing will lie and therefore which industries and shipping routes will be most affected-will be critical,” Shearing wrote, adding: “My base case is that it will be contained primarily to strategically important sectors – think phones, batteries, chips, pharmaceuticals and dual-purpose goods like drones.
What’s more, I suspect that where manufacturing is relocated out of China it will shift to another low-cost country.
Accordingly, the overall effect may be more, not less, shipping demand especially if new routes lengthen voyage times.”
Global air cargo posts record October growth, says IATA
The air cargo industry recorded its eighth straight month growth in October, with demand rising 4.1 percent year- on-year in cargo tonne kilometres, reported London’s Air Cargo News.
Capacity increased 5.1 percent, while the load factor slipped 0.5 points to 47.1 percent.
according to figures released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
IATA director general Willie Walsh said the figures highlight how global supply chains are adapting to US tariff impacts.
While Asia-North America traffic contracted for a sixth month, other trade lanes saw double-digit growth.
Europe-Asia demand rose 11.7 percent, within-Asia improved nine percent and Middle East-Asia climbed 11.5 percent.
Asia-North America fell 1.4 percent year on year.
Airline performance varied, with North American carriers down 2.7 percent.
Asian airlines grew 8.3 percent, European carriers’ 4.3 percent, Middle Eastern carriers’ 5.7 percent, Latin American carriers’ 2.7 percent and African airlines surged 16.6 percent.
IATA noted global manufacturing sentiment strengthened in October, with the PMI rising to 51.45.
However, new export orders slipped to 48.31, below the expansion threshold, reflecting continued caution amid tariff uncertainty.
ONE adds Cai Mep port call and drops Xiamen US import surge
The Premier Alliance is reshaping its East Coast 2 service to include Vietnam’s Cai Mep port and Halifax in Canada, reflecting shifting trade flows from Asia, reported New York’s Journal of Commerce.
Ocean Network Express said the EC2 service, operated with HMM and Yang Ming, will drop Xiamen in China and add Cai Mep on eastbound rotations.
The first call will be made by the 13,154-TEU HMM Victory on December 22.
The EC2 will also reroute via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Panama Canal.
Its outbound rotation will end at Halifax, with Singapore added to the return voyage.
The new schedule begins December 10 with the 10,055-TEU Hyundai Pluto departing Halifax.
To balance the changes, the EC1 service will add calls at Manzanillo in Mexico and Busan in South Korea, while the EC3 service will drop a second Halifax call.
The adjustments highlight growing US imports from Vietnam.
Through August, exports reached US$122.6 billion, up 43 percent year-on-year.
Containerized exports from Cai Mep rose 20 percent to 35,400 TEU in the third quarter.
By contrast, Xiamen’s exports to the US totalled 194,895 TEU in the third quarter, down 15 percent from a year earlier despite a rebound from the second quarter.
Wallenius Wilhelmsen extends contracts valued $500m
Norway’s car carrier operator Wilhelmsen has extended two key strategic contracts for shipping services with an estimated additional value of close to $500m.
Pia Synnerman, chief customer officer at Wallenius Wilhelmsen, said that “The renewed contracts are a testament to the strength of long and strong standing partnerships with shared commitment towards zero emissions and developing integrated supply chains.”
The first contract is with a European auto manufacturer, and is extended by three additional years, with the new contract now ending in 2030.
The contract is estimated to have a total value of $580m, with the extension value being $384m based on expected volumes.
The contract extension includes additional volumes and trade lanes.
According to Wallenius Wilhelmsen, rates are in line with current market levels and the renewed agreement commenced in October, 2025.
With both companies’ ambition to reduce emissions, the contract includes a multi-fuel BAF mechanism to reduce emissions, in line with the trajectory of reaching net-zero in 2040.
The second contract is with a European heavy equipment manufacturer and is extended for two additional years with the new contract being valid through 2028.
The contract has an estimated total value of $175m, with the extension value being $114m, based on expected volumes.
The rates are in line with current market levels, the company said.
The customer has committed to introducing a multi-fuel BAF as part of the extension period.
The renewed agreement commenced on December 1, 2025.
Synnerman added that, “Both customers want to build on the existing foundation of their strategic collaboration with Wallenius Wilhelmsen to continue efforts for further integrating and optimizing their supply chains.”
NYK orders car carrier with Al-powered autonomous navigation system
Japan’s Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK) has ordered a new car carrier outfitted with an advanced autonomous navigation system from Shinkai Toyohashi Shipbuilding.
The vessel, set for delivery in March 2026, is designed to enhance safety and streamline onboard operations.
Trials will be conducted during actual commercial voyages to verify the effectiveness of the new technologies installed onboard.
The new navigation system set to feature on this vessel automatically avoids collisions and groundings to support safe navigation. However, it will still operate under crew supervision.
It will also assist with information gathering, situation analysis and collision avoidance planning, which, according to NYK, should reduce navigator workload and enhance safety.
This system utilises Al-powered image recognition and automatic radar target analysis to gather surrounding information, analyse the situation, visualize collision risks, formulate evasion plans, and perform automatic
steering.
It can also be switched to conventional crew-operated steering at any time.
To reduce the risk from issues like severe rolling that may lead to cargo shifting, the vessel will he fitted with a so-called large motion mitigation system.
This system simulates vessel motion using current ship conditions and real-time radar wave data.
It then recommends the optimal course and speed to the optimal course and speed to the operator to minimise rolling.
Cosco orders almost 90 ships
The Chinese state shipping company Cosice is ending the year with a mega order worth around CNY 50 billion for domestic ship yards.
This means that building sites might become scarce.
At the end of the year, the Chinese state shipping company Cosco places one of its largest orders ever.
A total of 87 ships will be built and the order is valued at around CNY 50 billion-equivalent to around 6.07 billion.
According to Chinese media, this is the largest single shipbuilding order ever placed in China.
According to reports, Cosco is ordering various ship types in order to optimize its fleet.
They will be built by the state-run shipyard group China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), which is also headquartered in Beijing.
All ships are to be built according to modern designs, including high energy efficiency, the implementation of alternative fuels (such as ammonia or methanol) as well as digital and Al-supported systems.
They are intended to meet the IMO’s decarbonization goals, as well as the industry’s need for a resilient, safe and low-carbon global supply chain.
Chinese shipyards at their limits?
With an order of this size, even Chinese capacities are reaching their limits.
China already accounts for more than 70% of all new construction orders, and now a significant amount is being added.
A wing market expert told HANSA that it can now be assumed that the construction sites for large ships will be full by 2030.
In addition, all others have increased in value due to first the high demand.
An official statement from Cosco is not yet available at this time.
One notable factor is the financing of the ships: it is said that CNY 47 billion of the total CNY 50 billion will be handled in cross border transactions.
This confirms a trend that has been apparent in the Chinese yuan for some time: While the currency has previously been less important internationally than the dollar, yen and euro, it is to be used more in the global shipping and shipbuilding business in future.
China had already significantly expanded the presence of the state-controlled renminbi yuan on the international market, for example by issuing bonds abroad. (JW)
New MSC- SLPA deal boosts Colombo throughput
The Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has reaffirmed its commitment to Sri Lanka with a new Terminal Service Agreement signed with the Sri Lanka Ports Authority.
The agreement sets out a clearer operational framework, sharpening service efficiency and capacity planning to accommodate anticipated throughput growth.
Both parties regard it as “a practical step” that will reinforce daily coordination and underpin the port’s long-term performance.
Founded in 1970 and headquartered in Geneva, MSC has grown from a single vessel into the global leader in container shipping, serving all major trade routes.
Its sustained commitment, scale and network reach have been instrumental in Colombo’s rise as a premier regional transshipment hub, consistently delivering the port’s highest annual volumes and driving both operational and commercial progress.
Recently, MSC announced that it will strengthen its transatlantic offering with a new connection from Northern Spain to – Canada – the Canada Express Service.